Today we saw another sustained move up in the cryptocurrency space. Optimism is increasing across the board, and it makes me sick. It makes me sick because I believe investors are not aware of the risk, and may be getting suckered into a bad trade. Bitcoin made several attempts to push lower, but these attempts failed to attract any longer term selling. They were in effect just margin stop runs that failed to continue. That means that in order to push lower the market must attract new buyers that will sell when Bitcoin decides to start its next move down. Why am I so sure that it's a bull trap and not just an influx of new investors that could start a new bull run? The answer lies in on chain transaction value. Bitcoin use and adoption has decreased substantially. This is readily apparent in looking at on chain transaction value. When we look at the history of on chain transaction value compared to price we quickly see that Bitcoin is already overvalued. At $9500 we would be reading the most overvalued levels Bitcoin has ever had indicating an imminent crash. The last time I saw things at this level was before the December crash. The only question is how alts will respond. How far can Bitcoin Cash move up during this bull trap, and will it respond the way it did in February when Bitcoin is falling? It could be a positive setup for an eventual flippening. As is usually the case for my predictions of this nature there will be many people that don't want to hear it. I'm not doing it for the Karma or tips. There is a good chance this just gets downvoted and never seen. I only post these so that I have a well established history of my major calls to point back to.
Bitcoin claramente lateralizado no topo, segue movimentos laterais com uma semana de valorização. Foi mais de 10% desde seu suporte, e agora segue em alta buscando inicialmente a LTB LTB opera abaixo da nuvem com máxima possível de 11400, esse é o valor estável de alta que o bitcoin pode buscar. Como nosso camarada é um pouco eufórico ainda considero 12k como pivot de reversão, um pouco acima da resistência. Ao que tudo indica, não há um sinal preciso de baixa ou de alta , mas acredito ser uma bull trap olhando no gráfico semanal. Correção 01 US$7500 para começar a festinha. Correção 02 US$6000 para encher o bolso antes de uma nova bull run confluente com crise de títulos bancários. Olhando e conspirando para 2020. https://preview.redd.it/71ke88vsskl31.png?width=1956&format=png&auto=webp&s=4e3148df775838a221d81bea3427938d47c50cb0 Estudo pessoal e não recomendação de investimento. Negocie pelo seu próprio risco.
Beware the Bitcoin bull trap - prediction revisited
Seven months ago I posted a prediction to this subreddit. You can read the original post at the link below. It did fairly well, but apparently not well enough. https://www.reddit.com/btc/comments/8dpje8/beware_the_bitcoin_bull_trap/ I also post notes daily on Patreon. Subscribers get the notes daily, and the public can see the posts three days later. I post valuation charts and my reading of order flow. Https://Patreon.com/speculatorseth For the past seven months I have been patiently waiting for price to return to reasonable valuations. When I first made my call it said we could see $4k. It currently says we could see $2k. I originally posted to establish a record. I have a monetary theory of cryptocurrency value that is extremely predictive of price. Using the blockchain for legitimate commerce is what creates value. You can measure this through estimated transaction value. I am trying to prove this theory to you by posting accurate predictions. The era of Bitcoin price being based largely on speculation needs to end. It is destroying people's money, and it is holding crypto's back from realizing their full potential. The constant bottom fishing in the market only makes things worse. There needs to be a fundamental reason for buyers to step in. That can't happen if the market doesn't understand value in the first place. So I urge yout to share this information. Bitcoin price must be backed up with transaction value.
25 days ago I warned that Bitcoin prices above $9,500 were unsustainable. https://www.reddit.com/btc/comments/8dpje8/beware_the_bitcoin_bull_trap 21 days ago I sold all of my holdings near the specified price target.https://www.reddit.com/btc/comments/8enqq7/sold_everything Since that time Bitcoin has sold off significantly. As I write this Bitcoin is selling to $8,000. My calls are based on a valuation model that I post every day to subscribers on my Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/SpeculatorSeth The valuation model is extremely predictive of tops and bottoms. I honestly didn't believe it myself, but since I created the model it has successfully predicted four major pivots on the daily charts. The incredible success has led me to call my model "the golden goose". I was planning on posting a victory tour of sorts once it was clear to everyone that we are in a down trend. I really wanted to rub it in everyone's faces. However, I did not expect such quick flushes lower. At this point it is hard for me to find any joy in being right. My model is currently projecting the bottom at around $3,000. This move may take up to 6 months to occur, but it may be faster as someone big is definitely panic selling. Think of my targets as Bollinger Bands that adjust as we get closer to them. So we will have to watch the lower band as we continue to drop. It could be a little lower, and it could be a little higher. It all depends on the transactions on the blockchain. Why am I posting this? As you can probably guess I do use the money I get from sharing the indicator to invest back into Bitcoin. It's unfortunate that I discovered the model when it was already too late to catch last year's bull, but I have made money from the bounce we got between $6,000 and $10,000. You better bet I'm saving up so I have a big wad of cash to throw at this when my indicator says we're oversold again. I also feel a responsibility to warn people. I've had traders tell me that my call saved them thousands of dollars. Maybe I don't make money from that, but I think it's worth it. But there is a larger trade here as well. Bitcoin's value depends on the transactions happening on the block chain. If there isn't enough money being transacted on the chain to back up the current value then a crash becomes inevitable. There simply isn't enough buyers to sustain it. It is the transactions that gives Bitcoin value. With that knowledge the market can invest based on fundamental information instead of just pure speculation. That means that some day we won't get these bubbles and brutal bear markets. Instead price will move based on economic cycles, and how those cycles affect the amount of money transacted on the blockchain. Such stability makes Bitcoin more valuable, and ultimately increases the value of my own investment. If you want to follow the model day by day subscribe to the patreon. Hopefully next time I make a post like this it will be after better markets.
Contrary to a bear trap, a bull trap is designed to make people believe the value of a tradeable asset will increase spectacularly. Looking at the Bitcoin price chart over the past few days, it is evident the $2,700 mark was a major bull trap. With the BTC price rising so steadily, a lot of people thought there would be no way to stop the momentum. Forward to today, and Bitcoin is barely ... Biggest Bitcoin Bull Trap In The Making April 23, 2020 By Jefe Caan. Share with your friends . Wechat Breaking News / Bitcoin / Analytics / BTCUSD. The price of Bitcoin has seen some minor retracements here and there but it seems ready to shoot towards $8k and potentially higher than that towards $8.4k-$9k to fill the CME Futures gap in the wake of Bitcoin halving. We would once again see a ... Durch den gestrigen Bitcoin Kurs Anstieg dürfte klar sein, dass von der Poppe mit seiner Einschätzung daneben lag. Der Preis pro Bitcoin stieg in Windeseile auf bis zu 13.200$, wo er eine starke Ablehnung erlebte. Ethereum Kurs könnte schon bald die 440$ antesten. Was den Ethereum Kurs betrifft, so ist Van de Poppe etwas positiver eingestellt. Basierend auf dem täglichen Zeitrahmen, ETH ... Despite this, one popular trader is noting that Bitcoin’s current market structure is a prime example of what could be “the biggest bull trap” he has ever seen. If confirmed, this could suggest that the cryptocurrency is well-positioned to see a massive near-term decline. Bitcoin Consolidates Above $11,000 as Bulls Guard Against Downside Bitcoin is attempting to break out of its weeks-long pattern of consolidation as traders try to push it in the direction of the US stock market. The benchmark cryptocurrency surged 2.96 percent to $9,343.31 on Monday.
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