submitted by Tokenomy to tokenomyofficial [link] [comments]
Author: Christian Hsieh, CEO of Tokenomy
This paper examines some explanations for the continual global market demand for the U.S. dollar, the rise of stablecoins, and the utility and opportunities that crypto dollars can offer to both the cryptocurrency and traditional markets.
The U.S. dollar, dominant in world trade since the establishment of the 1944 Bretton Woods System, is unequivocally the world’s most demanded reserve currency. Today, more than 61% of foreign bank reserves and nearly 40% of the entire world’s debt is denominated in U.S. dollars1.
However, there is a massive supply and demand imbalance in the U.S. dollar market. On the supply side, central banks throughout the world have implemented more than a decade-long accommodative monetary policy since the 2008 global financial crisis. The COVID-19 pandemic further exacerbated the need for central banks to provide necessary liquidity and keep staggering economies moving. While the Federal Reserve leads the effort of “money printing” and stimulus programs, the current money supply still cannot meet the constant high demand for the U.S. dollar2. Let us review some of the reasons for this constant dollar demand from a few economic fundamentals.
Demand for U.S. DollarsFirstly, most of the world’s trade is denominated in U.S. dollars. Chief Economist of the IMF, Gita Gopinath, has compiled data reflecting that the U.S. dollar’s share of invoicing was 4.7 times larger than America’s share of the value of imports, and 3.1 times its share of world exports3. The U.S. dollar is the dominant “invoicing currency” in most developing countries4.
This U.S. dollar preference also directly impacts the world’s debt. According to the Bank of International Settlements, there is over $67 trillion in U.S. dollar denominated debt globally, and borrowing outside of the U.S. accounted for $12.5 trillion in Q1 20205. There is an immense demand for U.S. dollars every year just to service these dollar debts. The annual U.S. dollar buying demand is easily over $1 trillion assuming the borrowing cost is at 1.5% (1 year LIBOR + 1%) per year, a conservative estimate.
Secondly, since the U.S. has a much stronger economy compared to its global peers, a higher return on investments draws U.S. dollar demand from everywhere in the world, to invest in companies both in the public and private markets. The U.S. hosts the largest stock markets in the world with more than $33 trillion in public market capitalization (combined both NYSE and NASDAQ)6. For the private market, North America’s total share is well over 60% of the $6.5 trillion global assets under management across private equity, real assets, and private debt investments7. The demand for higher quality investments extends to the fixed income market as well. As countries like Japan and Switzerland currently have negative-yielding interest rates8, fixed income investors’ quest for yield in the developed economies leads them back to the U.S. debt market. As of July 2020, there are $15 trillion worth of negative-yielding debt securities globally (see chart). In comparison, the positive, low-yielding U.S. debt remains a sound fixed income strategy for conservative investors in uncertain market conditions.
Last, but not least, there are many developing economies experiencing failing monetary policies, where hyperinflation has become a real national disaster. A classic example is Venezuela, where the currency Bolivar became practically worthless as the inflation rate skyrocketed to 10,000,000% in 20199. The recent Beirut port explosion in Lebanon caused a sudden economic meltdown and compounded its already troubled financial market, where inflation has soared to over 112% year on year10. For citizens living in unstable regions such as these, the only reliable store of value is the U.S. dollar. According to the Chainalysis 2020 Geography of Cryptocurrency Report, Venezuela has become one of the most active cryptocurrency trading countries11. The demand for cryptocurrency surges as a flight to safety mentality drives Venezuelans to acquire U.S. dollars to preserve savings that they might otherwise lose. The growth for cryptocurrency activities in those regions is fueled by these desperate citizens using cryptocurrencies as rails to access the U.S. dollar, on top of acquiring actual Bitcoin or other underlying crypto assets.
The Rise of Crypto DollarsDue to the highly volatile nature of cryptocurrencies, USD stablecoin, a crypto-powered blockchain token that pegs its value to the U.S. dollar, was introduced to provide stable dollar exposure in the crypto trading sphere. Tether is the first of its kind. Issued in 2014 on the bitcoin blockchain (Omni layer protocol), under the token symbol USDT, it attempts to provide crypto traders with a stable settlement currency while they trade in and out of various crypto assets. The reason behind the stablecoin creation was to address the inefficient and burdensome aspects of having to move fiat U.S. dollars between the legacy banking system and crypto exchanges. Because one USDT is theoretically backed by one U.S. dollar, traders can use USDT to trade and settle to fiat dollars. It was not until 2017 that the majority of traders seemed to realize Tether’s intended utility and started using it widely. As of April 2019, USDT trading volume started exceeding the trading volume of bitcoina12, and it now dominates the crypto trading sphere with over $50 billion average daily trading volume13.
An interesting aspect of USDT is that although the claimed 1:1 backing with U.S. dollar collateral is in question, and the Tether company is in reality running fractional reserves through a loose offshore corporate structure, Tether’s trading volume and adoption continues to grow rapidly14. Perhaps in comparison to fiat U.S. dollars, which is not really backed by anything, Tether still has cash equivalents in reserves and crypto traders favor its liquidity and convenience over its lack of legitimacy. For those who are concerned about Tether’s solvency, they can now purchase credit default swaps for downside protection15. On the other hand, USDC, the more compliant contender, takes a distant second spot with total coin circulation of $1.8 billion, versus USDT at $14.5 billion (at the time of publication). It is still too early to tell who is the ultimate leader in the stablecoin arena, as more and more stablecoins are launching to offer various functions and supporting mechanisms. There are three main categories of stablecoin: fiat-backed, crypto-collateralized, and non-collateralized algorithm based stablecoins. Most of these are still at an experimental phase, and readers can learn more about them here. With the continuous innovation of stablecoin development, the utility stablecoins provide in the overall crypto market will become more apparent.
Institutional DevelopmentsIn addition to trade settlement, stablecoins can be applied in many other areas. Cross-border payments and remittances is an inefficient market that desperately needs innovation. In 2020, the average cost of sending money across the world is around 7%16, and it takes days to settle. The World Bank aims to reduce remittance fees to 3% by 2030. With the implementation of blockchain technology, this cost could be further reduced close to zero.
J.P. Morgan, the largest bank in the U.S., has created an Interbank Information Network (IIN) with 416 global Institutions to transform the speed of payment flows through its own JPM Coin, another type of crypto dollar17. Although people argue that JPM Coin is not considered a cryptocurrency as it cannot trade openly on a public blockchain, it is by far the largest scale experiment with all the institutional participants trading within the “permissioned” blockchain. It might be more accurate to refer to it as the use of distributed ledger technology (DLT) instead of “blockchain” in this context. Nevertheless, we should keep in mind that as J.P. Morgan currently moves $6 trillion U.S. dollars per day18, the scale of this experiment would create a considerable impact in the international payment and remittance market if it were successful. Potentially the day will come when regulated crypto exchanges become participants of IIN, and the link between public and private crypto assets can be instantly connected, unlocking greater possibilities in blockchain applications.
Many central banks are also in talks about developing their own central bank digital currency (CBDC). Although this idea was not new, the discussion was brought to the forefront due to Facebook’s aggressive Libra project announcement in June 2019 and the public attention that followed. As of July 2020, at least 36 central banks have published some sort of CBDC framework. While each nation has a slightly different motivation behind its currency digitization initiative, ranging from payment safety, transaction efficiency, easy monetary implementation, or financial inclusion, these central banks are committed to deploying a new digital payment infrastructure. When it comes to the technical architectures, research from BIS indicates that most of the current proofs-of-concept tend to be based upon distributed ledger technology (permissioned blockchain)19.
These institutional experiments are laying an essential foundation for an improved global payment infrastructure, where instant and frictionless cross-border settlements can take place with minimal costs. Of course, the interoperability of private DLT tokens and public blockchain stablecoins has yet to be explored, but the innovation with both public and private blockchain efforts could eventually merge. This was highlighted recently by the Governor of the Bank of England who stated that “stablecoins and CBDC could sit alongside each other20”. One thing for certain is that crypto dollars (or other fiat-linked digital currencies) are going to play a significant role in our future economy.
Future OpportunitiesThere is never a dull moment in the crypto sector. The industry narratives constantly shift as innovation continues to evolve. Twelve years since its inception, Bitcoin has evolved from an abstract subject to a familiar concept. Its role as a secured, scarce, decentralized digital store of value has continued to gain acceptance, and it is well on its way to becoming an investable asset class as a portfolio hedge against asset price inflation and fiat currency depreciation. Stablecoins have proven to be useful as proxy dollars in the crypto world, similar to how dollars are essential in the traditional world. It is only a matter of time before stablecoins or private digital tokens dominate the cross-border payments and global remittances industry.
There are no shortages of hypes and experiments that draw new participants into the crypto space, such as smart contracts, new blockchains, ICOs, tokenization of things, or the most recent trends on DeFi tokens. These projects highlight the possibilities for a much more robust digital future, but the market also needs time to test and adopt. A reliable digital payment infrastructure must be built first in order to allow these experiments to flourish.
In this paper we examined the historical background and economic reasons for the U.S. dollar’s dominance in the world, and the probable conclusion is that the demand for U.S. dollars will likely continue, especially in the middle of a global pandemic, accompanied by a worldwide economic slowdown. The current monetary system is far from perfect, but there are no better alternatives for replacement at least in the near term. Incremental improvements are being made in both the public and private sectors, and stablecoins have a definite role to play in both the traditional and the new crypto world.
 How the US dollar became the world’s reserve currency, Investopedia
 The dollar is in high demand, prone to dangerous appreciation, The Economist
 Dollar dominance in trade and finance, Gita Gopinath
 Global trades dependence on dollars, The Economist & IMF working papers
 Total credit to non-bank borrowers by currency of denomination, BIS
 Biggest stock exchanges in the world, Business Insider
 McKinsey Global Private Market Review 2020, McKinsey & Company
 Central banks current interest rates, Global Rates
 Venezuela hyperinflation hits 10 million percent, CNBC
 Lebanon inflation crisis, Reuters
 Venezuela cryptocurrency market, Chainalysis
 The most used cryptocurrency isn’t Bitcoin, Bloomberg
 Trading volume of all crypto assets, coinmarketcap.com
 Tether US dollar peg is no longer credible, Forbes
 New crypto derivatives let you bet on (or against) Tether’s solvency, Coindesk
 Remittance Price Worldwide, The World Bank
 Interbank Information Network, J.P. Morgan
 Jamie Dimon interview, CBS News
 Rise of the central bank digital currency, BIS
 Speech by Andrew Bailey, 3 September 2020, Bank of England
\This post has been written by Hedgehog, an MCS influencer and one of Korea's famous cryptocurrency key opinion leaders.*submitted by MyCoinStory to MyCoinStory [link] [comments]
Greetings from MCS, the derivatives trading platform where traders ALWAYS come first.
Currently, DEFI is gathering great interest in the cryptocurrency market. The biggest trend in the cryptocurrency market in 2020 is without doubt DEFI. MCS traders who have never heard of DEFI, or traders who have heard of DEFI a few times but don't know what it exactly is, will have a hard understanding the heat of DEFI in the current cryptocurrency market. The level of heat in the DEFI market can be seen with the fact that CoinMarketCap has opened a separate category for DEFI.
CoinMarketCap DEFI Cryptocurrency List : https://coinmarketcap.com/defi/
The chart above shows the price of the latest cryptocurrency Chainlink for the last week. Chainlink is a cryptocurrency with the largest market capitalization among DEFI cryptocurrencies. It has demonstrated an increase of 70% in a week from about $10 a week ago to about $17 now. Thanks to this rise, Chainlink is also ranked 5th in the total cryptocurrency market cap.
🎯 So What Is This DEFI Thing That Trends?"DEFI = Decentralized Finance"
DEFI stands for decentralized decentralized finance, and finance here refers to a system that uses cryptocurrency. It is a system that allows you to receive a loan with cryptocurrency as collateral or to make a cryptocurrency loan with real economic collaterals. Furthermore, the lending system, POS, and DPOS that receive interest which allows staking of cryptocurrencies also belong to DEFI. This illustrates how wide the industry scope is.
🎯 Ethereum Network Transaction Fee Surpasses $2M
Above is an image of crypocurrencies listed in the order of the sum network fees incurred by each blockchain network within 24 hours. Bitcoin has a network fee of about $900,000 for 24 hours, while Ethereum has a network fee of $2M, showing tremendous traffic. It is estimated that this is due to the effect of Uniswap, which allows you to easily trade DEFI coins. This is where you can see how many cryptocurrency traders buy and sell DEFI coins.
🎯 DISCOVER THE NEXT DEFIThe rise of the globally popular DEFI cryptocurrencies may continue the heat for the time being, but traders who experienced the bitcoin bull market in 2017 can easily predict that these DEFI cryptocurrencies will burst someday. I also knew about DEFI, but I am not trading DEFI cryptocurrencies as there are uncertainties about DEFI's system. While seeing the horrific price increase of DEFI cryptocurrencies such as Chainlink, I often thought jumping in once, but decided to find NEXT DEFI.
Some experts have already diagnosed that the DEFI cryptocurrency market is in a bubble, and are saying that DEFI on the Ethereum blockchain is unreasonable because it requires paying too much network fees. Blockchain is a feature that eliminates the intermediaries to remove unreasonable fees but now, DEFI cryptocurrency traders are trading against $2M network fees per day. Here, you can infer what the NEXT DEFI will be. For the NEXT DEFI, I think that a blockchain platform that can connect DEFI cryptocurrencies easily without paying ridiculous network fees will take the place of NEXT DEFI.
🎯 If You Have Decided To Invest In DEFIThe ultimate responsibility of investing in cryptocurrency lies with the trader themselves, and I cannot say that you should not trade. But one certain aspect is, even with these DEFI cryptocurrencies, a bear market will start someday. When Bitcoin first exceeded $10,000 in 2017, all cryptocurrencies said, "Wow!! That's great!! Bitcoin will change the world!!!" and "Bitcoin will break at least $100,000." However Bitcoin stopped its rally at about $20,000, and the Ice Age came in 2018. If you decide to invest in DEFI right now, I recommend that you don't just imagine a golden future, and we encourage you to trade with risk management with the thought that a bear market may begin at any time.
🎯 In The End, Bitcoin Will Show A Tremendous RiseAt the time of the bitcoin bull-run in 2017, there were actually not so many things you could do with Bitcoin. At best, it was used for payment and remittance purposes, and some projects hard fork bitcoin to introduce it to their service platforms, but the time until the blockchain confirmation of about 10 minutes was difficult to apply to real use cases. On the other hand, at the time, Ethereum could easily create smart contracts and create tokens. Thanks to this, a huge number of cryptocurrency projects have conducted ICOs, and to participate in the ICO, cryptocurrency traders purchased Ethereum, paid Ethereum network fees, and generated tremendous traffic to the Ethereum network. Therefore, as the price of Ethereum soared, the price of Bitcoin, the leader of the cryptocurrency, also skyrocketed. I think it is making a very similar appearance now. At the time, an astronomical amount of money flowed into the cryptocurrency market to participate in the Ethereum-based ICOs, eventually making the current all-time high of Bitcoin, and the current situation is the same as DEFI, and astronomical funds are flowing into the cryptocurrency market. I have no doubt that these funds will eventually flock to Bitcoin, leading to an uptrend rally to break down the huge barrier of about $19,000 in Bitcoin price, the all-time high.
I am a Bitcoin margin trader, Hedgehog. Thank you for reading this post.
\Please note that this article is to share the thoughts of Hedgehog by re-establishing the current cryptocurrency market while watching the video of a bitcoin YouTuber Spunky.*
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submitted by UMITop to u/UMITop [link] [comments]
Ethereum cryptocurrency that comes second in terms of capitalization on the crypto market is traditionally seen as fast and profitable. However, over the last few weeks it's had a rough patch. Since early August, the network has had huge queues of transactions pending processing while fees have skyrocketed and surpassed the historical high.
The main issue though is that even fees of a few dollars per transfer don't help get rid of the“traffic jams”. The cause of this is numerous DeFi projects and a huge number of financial pyramids based on the Ethereum platform. Both generate excessive load on the network.
The situation is downright unpleasant, and our users might question whether the UMI network could face a similar challenge? We'd like to assure you it could not. The UMI network is by default protected against these problems — it cannot have “traffic jams”, fees or financial pyramids. But first things first.
How has the Ethereum network ground to a halt?
In its report dated August 4, Arcane Research that provides analysis within the field of cryptocurrency stated that over the previous week the daily size of transaction fees in the Ethereum network has surged up to a record high for over two and a half years. On August 3, the median value #%D0%9F%D1%80%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B5%D1%80_%D0%B8%D1%81%D0%BF%D0%BE%D0%BB%D1%8C%D0%B7%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%B8%D1%8F)of the fee amounted to $0.82, with the overall amount of transaction fees totaling $2 mln. However, it only signaled the start of real problems.
Over the next week, fees continued to grow and by August 11 the median fee value almost doubled equaling $1.57. Larry Cermak, an expert at a big analytical and news-making crypto portal The Block, wrote in his August 15 tweet that over a week the total amount of transaction fees in the Ethereum network totaled $34.5 mln, having surpassed its historical high. Meanwhile, in the Bitcoin network that is seen as too expensive the fees were almost four times lower at $9 mln.
The total fee amount paid by cryptocurrency users over a week:
Historical Growth Chart for Ethereum Fees. Source
The existing situation shows that Ethereum is actually not as fast and profitable as commonly cited. Additionally, this could happen to almost any cryptocurrency except UMI that charges no fees whatsoever. We will tell you why.
Why have these problems emerged?
There is nothing unoriginal: the Ethereum network simply can't handle an increased load. Arcane Research analysts consider that a principal cause of this situation is the constantly increasing number of the DeFi ecosystem projects built on the Ethereum blockchain. Their number is growing all the time which causes the overload of the network. As of August 12, the total amount of funds in DeFi applications reached $4.3 billion which is 19.5% higher than that in the past week. At the time of writing this article, the amount surged to $6.21 billion. You can see the current data here. What is the most unpleasant about DeFi protocols is that a lot of them are scam projects.
Which is not the worst part though. There is also another factor that significantly slows down the Ethereum network. There are a lot of pyramid-like projects that are built on the EOS platform and use smart contracts. One of them is SmartWay Forsage, which regularly overloads the network with a large number of transactions, causes traffic jams, and, consequently, leads to increased fees (keep in mind that Ethereum miners choose transactions with a higher commission). Vitalik Buterin, the co-founder of Ethereum, revealed his disapproval of the SmartWay Forsage methodology and asked them to "leave and not pollute Ethereum ecology in the future". However, the project is slow to do this — it continues to deceive users.
This is only the tip of the iceberg of scam projects which abounds on the EOS network –– they continually emerge, work for a while, then go down as scams and are replaced with new ones. This never-ending stream of "investment projects" based on the Ponzi scheme overloads the system. This is the reason why Adam Back, a pioneer of the crypto industry and founder of the technology company Blockstream, equated Ethereum with such infamous projects as Onecoin and Bitconnect. Adam Back's solid dig at Ethereum became the subject of much debate among crypto enthusiasts.
Of course, it all doesn't mean that Ethereum is a bad cryptocurrency. On the contrary, it has a lot of advantages over other coins. But all that has happened exposes Ethereum's faults which must be eliminated. The problem is that they may not be fixable. It is far from certain that the developers will be able to get rid of all the defects as the system has huge scalability problems.
The crypto community has to admit that Ethereum, like other first-generation cryptocurrencies, has issues with capacity, fees, and scalability and is gradually becoming obsolete.
2020 is the time for young innovative cryptocurrencies such as UMI.
UMI is the flagship of new-generation cryptocurrencies.
In real fact, any cryptocurrency could face it. Each cryptocurrency charges fees which typically surge when the network is overloaded or the price is going up. Everyone will remember 2017 when in line with price growth and the network's overload Bitcoin transaction fee reached a high of around $40.
But when it comes to UMI, it works the other way round. The UMI network's advantages are high capacity, no fees, and scaling possibilities. It uses the best and fastest crypto industry solutions and excludes all inefficient methods by default. Smart optimization in combination with the Proof-of-Authority technology operating on the master node basis enables almost instant payments.
At the stage of network testing, an incredibly high capacity was achieved:
The UMI network can process transactions that Ethereum processes over a year in a few days and with no fees. More details
What is more important is that less than 0.001% of the network's overall potential is used now. The UMI network has a lot of reserve capacity and can handle hundreds of thousands of times heavier load. Moreover, with scaling possibilities, UMI can keep up with the times. The UMI code ensures the safe introduction of any upgrades — the network can be easily modified and scaled with cutting edge technology solutions. In other words, traffic jams will never pose a problem for us. UMI will instantly process all transactions, with no fees. Always.
A real-time speedometer displays the number of transactions processed by the UMI network per second. Link
Additionally, unlike Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies, the UMI's staking smart contract prevents possibilities of any pyramid schemes, meaning eliminates their negative influence. Our staking is completely safe and secured against scammers. Read more about this in our article. Any UMI staking structure could work forever. In other words, you can multiply your coins at a rate of up to 40% per month for an indefinitely long period of time.
UMI doesn't inherit the disadvantages of the first-generation cryptocurrencies. This is an innovative, carefully designed network based on state-of-the-art technologies. UMI is an ambitious step toward the future. And we're making it together right now!
Sincerely yours, UMI team
submitted by Crypto_Browser to CryptoBrowser_EN [link] [comments]
Meanwhile, Rumors Of ETH 2.0 Testnet Going Live Gave A Further Boost To Ethereum’s Price, Despite Growing Gas Fees
The world’s second-largest cryptocurrency to date, Ethereum, managed to reach a price point as high as $278 on Coinbase in what it seems a week of upwards momentum for Ethereum.
Ethereum’s price broke above the $250 resistance level on Wednesday, July 22, with strong bullish sentiment and growing trading volumes. The recent DeFi boom also contributed to the price surge, as on Thursday, July 23, Ethereum spiked several times, securing both the $250 and $260 zones, which can be considered as a support, if a negative correction occurs.
Crypto experts consolidated upon the statement that if Ethereum secures the $285 resistance, the crypto sector may see the second-largest crypto to skyrocket past $300, which would mean a new 52-week high, according to data from Cryptobrowser.io
However, the upward momentum may be put to a halt, as transaction fees, otherwise known as gas, are exponentially growing. The current gas price situation made Vitalilk Buterin, Ethereum’s co-founder, to bring a proposal for restructuring gas fees across the blockchain. Interestingly, the gas prices increase didn’t stop Ethereum’s upwards rally. Further, one of the biggest gas spenders, Tether, also accounts for the increase in network usage, as 59% of all circulating USDT tokens are currently on Ethereum’s network. Ethereum also surpassed the leading cryptocurrency to date, Bitcoin, in terms of network usage.
DeFi also accounts for the increased Ethereum network usage, as the total value locked (TVL) in DeFi projects hit a new all-time high of $3,5 billion, with a peak of 4 million ETH tokens locked in DeFi apps. The rapid growth means DeFi made an 87% increase in TVL in July alone, with a whopping 400% TVL increase since the start of 2020.
Source: DeFi Pulse
Meanwhile, crypto analysts consider the long-awaited ETH 2.0 update to be at the core of Ethereum’s upwards rally. Ethereum officials stated that a testnet for ETH 2.0 would go live on August 4, which is the first step for transitioning from a Proof-of-work (PoW) to a Proof-of-stake (PoS) transaction validation mechanism.
The much-anticipated network update created a vast demand for Ethereum options contracts, with investors betting Ethereum’s price would reach the $400-$800 regions. Over $230 million were put into call options, with 6000 contracts expiring on September 25.
Also, crypto derivatives exchange Deribit looked into the possibility for Ethereum to reach and surpass $400 by the end of September or December. It turns out, the odds of Ethereum hitting $400 are 18% and 34%, respectively.
Despite the forecasts, the market is still optimistic in a future price rally above $400. Bitazu Capital’s Mohit Sorout published a chart on Twitter, stating that Ethereum’s climb to $360 “will be fast”, with “Two months of sellers reevaluating their life choices now.”
submitted by tkeycoin to Tkeycoin_Official [link] [comments]
In a series of publications: Coming TkeyNet and listing on exchanges and TkeyNet: release date, a brief analysis of the system, plans-revealed the General characteristics of the new TkeyNet system, which we will all switch to soon.
Given the volume of material, it was possible to miss the main theses or interpret them in their way, while the question ”why now“ was ignored.
Today we will review the main questions and tell you about the testing process of TkeyNet.
Why will the switching to TkeyNet take place this year, and not later, as planned?Let’s look at the project history. The TKEY concept dates back to October 2017, and it was in the fourth quarter of 2017 that the distributed infrastructure concept was approved. In early 2018, the formation of the TkeyNet architecture began.
To make the whole course of events clear, we highlighted the main points and commented on them:
The projected development period for TkeyNet is 2.5–3 years.
This forecast was made in 2018 when the development of TkeyNet began.
The course of events that was part of our strategyCore 1.0 launch and exchange
The company planned to launch a Protocol based on Core 1.0 and conduct a subsequent listing of the asset on the exchange in late 2018-in the first half of 2019. Depending on the completion of work on Core 1.0.
Why launch Core 1.0? There is a fixed practice in the market when a project starts on a ready-made blockchain, and then switches to its own, for example, EOS. This project was launched based on the Ethereum blockchain, and later the transition to its Protocol was made.
Our main task was to launch a Protocol with non-standard technical solutions for the market and enter the auction to expand the project audience and obtain liquidity for the asset.
With an increase in the asset price, the company would be able to increase its financial resources and reinvest them in the development of the project. Thus, the launch of a blockchain-based on Core 1.0 fully met these tasks.
In Core 1.0, new transaction models introduced and multi-blockchain support implemented. The first version of the Protocol supported the inclusion of 10 separate chains. The mechanics allowed you to change the number of parallel chains in the blockchain. To increase throughput, the team implemented PostgreSQL support, instead of the typical key-value database that is present in most cryptocurrencies.Switching to Core 2.0 during trading and then switching to TkeyNet
Next, the plan was to upgrade the network to Core 2.0 and continuously modify it. The modification means the gradual implementation of functionality and standards from TkeyNet so that it is easy to make the transition from Core 2.0 to the new TkeyNet Protocol during trading on the exchange.
In 2019, a Core 1.0 — based system launched. The year was simultaneously busy: the first presentation of TkeyNet at APA-2019, presence at IFC-2019, work on draft laws, and at the same time, the year was quite difficult for our company, which affected the timing shifts for products and all project plans in General. The listing did not take place.
Reasons for switching to TkeyNet
There is a silver lining. In the period from April to May, there was positive news from developers: work on TkeyNet will be completed much earlier than planned.
By the end of June, we were preparing to launch a test network based on TkeyNet, to start the final testing of all functions.
On June 22, 2020, the core 1.0 network suspended. For more information, see the link.Shortly, we will be able to switch to TkeyNet and list the TKEY asset to crypto exchange.
Upon completion of the launch of TkeyNet, the official date of listing of TKEY on the trading platform will publish at the link: tkeycoin.com/start/;
What is TkeyNet?We have already talked about TkeyNet in the previous article: TkeyNet-release date, a brief analysis of the system, further plans, gave examples of how the use of technology, told what products can be created based on TkeyNet, all this covered in General terms.
In this publication, we share some theses so that you will gradually develop an objective picture of the new TkeyNet system and its capabilities, which many of you will be able to apply in the future in business or everyday life.
From the very beginning of development, — TkeyNet was intended to improve the existing financial system, not to replace it.
From a technical point of view, the system and its functionality entirely based on blockchain technology. However, this is not a classic variation, as, for example, with bitcoin, but the new implementation of It — more secure, more suitable for global use, more perfect. In simple words, our developers took the best from Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and other market leaders, combined their pros, eliminated their cons, and modified existing solutions on the market, resulting in new technology with new features.
For the user, TkeyNet is a fast payment network that allows you to store, use, and move various assets in the payment network, such as currencies, shares, real estate, and precious metals, etc. Businesses will be able to legally conduct international transfers in seconds and significantly save on transactions.
For developers and startups, this means best practices, infrastructure, liquidity, and access to ready-made solutions that can complete in their products.
Among competitors, TkeyNet is much faster than its predecessors, more profitable, and cheaper in terms of transactions.
For businesses and financial institutions, it is an infrastructure that will significantly improve existing financial processes, from payment routing to multi-level exchange and clearing operations.
If we compare the giants of the financial industry-banks, and the new paradigm — distributed payment systems, we will notice a significant difference. The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies estimated at ≈340 billion US dollars and the capitalization of 10 world banks is 2 trillion dollars. A significant difference, don’t you agree?
You can’t argue with the numbers, and we must understand that banks remain vital objects of the financial system. Banks help us send funds within the country and abroad, and provide a lot of services, such as loans, deposits, and a lot of other services.
Anyway, using cryptocurrency, users actively exchange it for Fiat currencies to pay for any formed needs. Therefore, TkeyNet will serve as a bridge between fiat and digital currencies, providing its users with best practices and tools through which we will all have access to various digital and cash at any time and anywhere in the world.
The Asian Parliamentary Assembly actively raised the issue of trust and the development of financial products in underdeveloped countries. The problem in such countries is total state control of property registers. Citizens prefer to dispose of their funds in informal settings because they do not consider state systems reliable.
The representatives of the senior management of the TKEY group of companies — Pavel Yakimov (the Director of Information Technologies) and Maxim Yakimov attended these discussions. Both of them recommended several approaches to develop a digital framework that can combat money laundering, and also illustrated open investment platforms, security, and data exchange systems that are based on TKEY distributed solutions. © — businessinsider.comAccording to the World Bank alone, about 1.7–1.8 billion people do not have accounts in any financial institution, and about 47% of them located in developing countries. The problem of interaction between a person and a financial institution consists of three main reasons: poverty, trust issues, and geographical difficulties. With systems such as TkeyNet, it is possible to connect people and financial institutions with a single source of trust. With the use of such systems, a person does not need anything other than access to the Internet.
The investments that bring us all togetherOn the other hand, the audience of the TKEY project is quite diverse: our investors represent a variety of professions, a variety of cities, and a variety of age groups. However, one thing, nevertheless, unites us all — this thing is an investment. And therefore, some of the users may not be interested in technical details or the difference between 1.0, 2.0, or TkeyNet. But at least the thesis, the main message, must be understood by absolutely everyone.
The more popular the company’s products are on the market, the stronger it is and the development. Due to the reliability of the company, the prices of its assets grow.Whether you are interested in technology or not, the company’s development will directly affect the reliability of its assets. Each of us knows that any cooperation, any news is a reason to move on the stock exchange. TkeyNet opens up these opportunities to us, provides several strategically profitable, and importantly — stable partnerships with financial institutions. The number of users in the digital payments segment expected to reach 4,636,34 million by 2024.
Testing the TkeyNet systemFrom 22 to 24 July, the test network TkeyNet was successfully launched.
Our team is currently actively testing the entire network and conducting a security audit. Developers are testing the network with different scenarios: security, reliability of the full system, as well as individual modules and functions.
Given the different number of similar-looking formulations, but at the same time completely different from each other, some users wondered what is the difference between such concepts: Mainnet, Testnet, and TkeyNet.
Testnet should consider as a demonstration network for testing, testing concepts, new features, experiments, and debugging without the risk of losing any data. Testnet is a polygon for the development team that used to improve the system and introduce new features.
Mainnet (Main Network) this is a complete product, ready to use.
TkeyNet is the name of the infrastructure, the entire system that we are developing, and Testnet and Mainnet are technical concepts within this system.
After testing the system is complete, TkeyNet will launch. We will issue instructions on how to upgrade to the new Protocol and new software, respectively.
Testing takes place without any excesses, and the launch of TkeyNet is just around the corner.Thank you for being with us! Follow the project news to stay up to date. If you missed the latest news, you read the notification on the site: https://tkeycoin.com/en/news/.
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Cryptocurrency technical analysis: bears drive the crypto market movement
The negative sentiment continues to reign in the crypto asset market, as indicated by technical and fundamental analyzes. Thus, the drop in demand for many top altcoins caused by the bitcoin correction has already led to the fact that the bears have reached many targets located in the support area. At the same time, several interesting events took place on the crypto market over the past working week. On July 15, it became known that the Chinese authorities will test the digital yuan on the largest supplier of groceries and food delivery Meituan Dianping. The work of the Chinese CBDC is already being tested by McDonald’s corporations, Starbucks and DiDi, the largest taxi aggregator in the Middle Kingdom. On June 16, Samsung announced the start of a partnership with Stellar, within which the developments of the blockchain project will be integrated into the Samsung Blockchain Keystore and Samsung Galaxy smartphones. Also, one cannot fail to note the large-scale hacking of the social network Twitter. On the night of July 15–16, unknown attackers gained access to 130 accounts of prominent businessmen, politicians and opinion leaders. As a result, fake Elon Musk, Changpen Zhao, Bill Gates and Barack Obama posted messages calling for bitcoins to be sent to them, which allowed them to collect 12.86 BTC.
BitcoinOn the four-hour chart, bitcoin develops a very clear movement along the levels from the point of view of technical analysis. After retesting the resistance at $9500 and the lower boundary of the “Triangle” pattern, BTC quotes rushed down to the first target at $9150. If in the coming days the price consolidates below the support level, then in the short term we should expect the development of a downtrend. The closest targets for sellers will be $9000 and $8760 (38.2% correction at Fibonacci levels). At the same time, the persistence of negative sentiment in the stock market will be a signal for the digital currency market, which will continue to fall until the beginning of autumn and the recovery of the business cycle.
In the long term, this may lead to a decline to supports at $8330 and $8050. But in order to push the price lower, the bears will need to exert enormous forces. Moreover, from these levels, whales will begin to gain new positions, which will push the bitcoin price up and launch a medium-term growth trend. It will confirm its departure above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) line and the closing of Japanese candlesticks above $9500. In the long term, this will make it possible to achieve medium-term goals in the form of clusters of $9,900- $10,000 and $10,400- $10,500.
BTC / USD chart, four-hour timeframe
So far, the first cryptocurrency also cannot form a global trend, and this has led to the fact that Bitcoin continues to consolidate movement within the $8900 cluster (50% correction at Fibonacci levels) — $9580. BTC quotes have already dropped below the $9,300 level, which could lead to sales up to $8,900. In the future, we should expect Bitcoin to test the targets of $8600 and $8220, where the 200-day moving average (MA) line and the lower border of the technical analysis model “Triangle” (on the chart below, its borders are marked in orange).
For a short time, BTC quotes may even drop to supports at $7400 and $6800, but the forecast for the price rebound back up and the formation of a long-term upward trend seems more likely. This will allow Bitcoin to reach the $10,000 and $10,500 levels, and their subsequent breakout will allow the asset to rush to the $11,000, $11,200- $11,300 and $11,800 levels by the end of the year.
BTC / USD chart, daily timeframe
EthereumThe altcoin market is also developing neutral dynamics so far, but more and more signals appear on the charts that speak in favor of the development of a downward movement.
Big capital is not yet ready to acquire digital assets at a price that has grown strongly since March.
Ether price develops along the $233 level (11.4% Fibonacci retracement line) and within the framework of consolidation within the $220- $251 range. The drop in the total demand for digital assets will lead to a decrease in the cost of ether towards the first target in the form of consolidation of $195- $200, where the 200-day MA line is located. The further course of trading will be determined by the appearance or absence of demand for cryptocurrencies. In the long term, by the end of the year, we should expect a move above $251 to the resistance areas of $280, $300 and $320.
ETH / USD chart, daily timeframe
LitecoinOn the daily chart, Litecoin continues to consolidate above the support boundaries in the form of a $40- $42 cluster, which takes the form of the Andrews Pitchfork technical analysis model. The development of the downward dynamics will lead to the fact that the cost of LTC will drop to $36 and $30.60. But in the medium term, we should expect the quotes to move above the 200-period MA line, which passes in the resistance area of $47.45. Overcoming it in the coming months will allow LTC quotes to soar to the levels of $51.50 (38.2% correctional level along the Fibonacci lines), $56.80, $60.80, $65 and $70.
LTC / USD chart, daily timeframe
Bitcoin CashThe Bitcoin fork began to decline after the breakout and a very clear retest of the lower boundary of the technical analysis model “Triangle” (on the chart below, its boundaries are marked in pink). At the same time, the Bitcoin Cash quotes remain within the framework of a broader consolidation in the form of the “Horizontal Channel” $200- $272. However, the priority trading scenario remains a decline in Bitcoin Cash to the $200 level. There is also a high probability of updating the March lows in the $170 and $150 regions.
However, in the months ahead, expect BCH to move above $272, where the 200-day SMA line passes, paving the way to the $305, $356 and $400 levels.
BCH / USDT chart, daily timeframe
XRPXRP is also under the influence of bears, leading to a decline towards the resistance level at $0.2050. In the coming weeks, the asset may test the support at $0.18, where the lower border of the Descending Triangle model lies. The development of the downward movement will allow XRP to test the support at $0.16 and $0.1470.
But in the medium term, a signal for a reversal of the downtrend may appear in the event of a break above the 200-day MA line passing at the level of $0.2360. If this happens, then in the second half of 2020 XRP will be able to reach important targets at the levels of $0.2540, $0.27, $0.2860 and $0.30.
XRP / USD chart, daily timeframe
Binance CoinBinance Coin tried to break the bottom of the Ascending Triangle, but failed. The current quotes are supported by the 200-day SMA line and the boundaries of the $15.30- $16 area. Maintaining the downward momentum will allow BNB to rush down to the supports at $13.80 and $11.50.
But the most likely scenario looks like a final consolidation above the 200-day MA. This will open the way to the current resistances at $17 and $18.14, as well as the first target in the form of a $19.36- $20 cluster. Testing of the $21.30 and $23.50 levels is also expected in the coming months.
BNB / USDT chart, daily timeframe
Now more and more crypto assets are showing a willingness to succumb to bearish pressure, which will send quotes into a short decline that will last over the next few weeks. But by the end of the year, we should expect the activity of whales, which will begin to massively buy cryptocurrencies. This will undoubtedly send their value into a long-term upward rally.
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The Federal Reserve and the United States government are pumping extreme amounts of money into the economy, already totaling over $484 billion. They are doing so because it already had a goal to inflate the United States Dollar (USD) so that the market can continue to all-time highs. It has always had this goal. They do not care how much inflation goes up by now as we are going into a depression with the potential to totally crash the US economy forever. They believe the only way to save the market from going to zero or negative values is to inflate it so much that it cannot possibly crash that low. Even if the market does not dip that low, inflation serves the interest of powerful people.
The impending crash of the stock market has ramifications for Bitcoin, as, though there is no direct ongoing-correlation between the two, major movements in traditional markets will necessarily affect Bitcoin. According to the Blockchain Center’s Cryptocurrency Correlation Tool, Bitcoin is not correlated with the stock market. However, when major market movements occur, they send ripples throughout the financial ecosystem which necessary affect even ordinarily uncorrelated assets.
Therefore, Bitcoin will reach X price on X date after crashing to a price of X by X date.
Stock Market CrashThe Federal Reserve has caused some serious consternation with their release of ridiculous amounts of money in an attempt to buoy the economy. At face value, it does not seem to have any rationale or logic behind it other than keeping the economy afloat long enough for individuals to profit financially and politically. However, there is an underlying basis to what is going on which is important to understand in order to profit financially.
All markets are functionally price probing systems. They constantly undergo a price-discovery process. In a fiat system, money is an illusory and a fundamentally synthetic instrument with no intrinsic value – similar to Bitcoin. The primary difference between Bitcoin is the underlying technology which provides a slew of benefits that fiat does not. Fiat, however, has an advantage in being able to have the support of powerful nation-states which can use their might to insure the currency’s prosperity.
Traditional stock markets are composed of indices (pl. of index). Indices are non-trading market instruments which are essentially summaries of business values which comprise them. They are continuously recalculated throughout a trading day, and sometimes reflected through tradable instruments such as Exchange Traded Funds or Futures. Indices are weighted by market capitalizations of various businesses.
Price theory essentially states that when a market fails to take out a new low in a given range, it will have an objective to take out the high. When a market fails to take out a new high, it has an objective to make a new low. This is why price-time charts go up and down, as it does this on a second-by-second, minute-by-minute, day-by-day, and even century-by-century basis. Therefore, market indices will always return to some type of bull market as, once a true low is formed, the market will have a price objective to take out a new high outside of its’ given range – which is an all-time high. Instruments can only functionally fall to zero, whereas they can grow infinitely.
So, why inflate the economy so much?
Deflation is disastrous for central banks and markets as it raises the possibility of producing an overall price objective of zero or negative values. Therefore, under a fractional reserve system with a fiat currency managed by a central bank – the goal of the central bank is to depreciate the currency. The dollar is manipulated constantly with the intention of depreciating its’ value.
Central banks have a goal of continued inflated fiat values. They tend to ordinarily contain it at less than ten percent (10%) per annum in order for the psyche of the general populace to slowly adjust price increases. As such, the markets are divorced from any other logic. Economic policy is the maintenance of human egos, not catering to fundamental analysis. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is well-known not to be a measure of actual growth or output. It is a measure of increase in dollars processed. Banks seek to produce raising numbers which make society feel like it is growing economically, making people optimistic. To do so, the currency is inflated, though inflation itself does not actually increase growth. When society is optimistic, it spends and engages in business – resulting in actual growth. It also encourages people to take on credit and debts, creating more fictional fiat.
Inflation is necessary for markets to continue to reach new heights, generating positive emotional responses from the populace, encouraging spending, encouraging debt intake, further inflating the currency, and increasing the sale of government bonds. The fiat system only survives by generating more imaginary money on a regular basis.
Bitcoin investors may profit from this by realizing that stock investors as a whole always stand to profit from the market so long as it is managed by a central bank and does not collapse entirely. If those elements are filled, it has an unending price objective to raise to new heights. It also allows us to realize that this response indicates that the higher-ups believe that the economy could crash in entirety, and it may be wise for investors to have multiple well-thought-out exit strategies.
Economic Analysis of BitcoinThe reason why the Fed is so aggressively inflating the economy is due to fears that it will collapse forever or never rebound. As such, coupled with a global depression, a huge demand will appear for a reserve currency which is fundamentally different than the previous system. Bitcoin, though a currency or asset, is also a market. It also undergoes a constant price-probing process. Unlike traditional markets, Bitcoin has the exact opposite goal. Bitcoin seeks to appreciate in value and not depreciate. This has a quite different affect in that Bitcoin could potentially become worthless and have a price objective of zero.
Bitcoin was created in 2008 by a now famous mysterious figure known as Satoshi Nakamoto and its’ open source code was released in 2009. It was the first decentralized cryptocurrency to utilize a novel protocol known as the blockchain. Up to one megabyte of data may be sent with each transaction. It is decentralized, anonymous, transparent, easy to set-up, and provides myriad other benefits. Bitcoin is not backed up by anything other than its’ own technology.
Bitcoin is can never be expected to collapse as a framework, even were it to become worthless. The stock market has the potential to collapse in entirety, whereas, as long as the internet exists, Bitcoin will be a functional system with a self-authenticating framework. That capacity to persist regardless of the actual price of Bitcoin and the deflationary nature of Bitcoin means that it has something which fiat does not – inherent value.
Bitcoin is based on a distributed database known as the “blockchain.” Blockchains are essentially decentralized virtual ledger books, replete with pages known as “blocks.” Each page in a ledger is composed of paragraph entries, which are the actual transactions in the block.
Blockchains store information in the form of numerical transactions, which are just numbers. We can consider these numbers digital assets, such as Bitcoin. The data in a blockchain is immutable and recorded only by consensus-based algorithms. Bitcoin is cryptographic and all transactions are direct, without intermediary, peer-to-peer.
Bitcoin does not require trust in a central bank. It requires trust on the technology behind it, which is open-source and may be evaluated by anyone at any time. Furthermore, it is impossible to manipulate as doing so would require all of the nodes in the network to be hacked at once – unlike the stock market which is manipulated by the government and “Market Makers”. Bitcoin is also private in that, though the ledge is openly distributed, it is encrypted. Bitcoin’s blockchain has one of the greatest redundancy and information disaster recovery systems ever developed.
Bitcoin has a distributed governance model in that it is controlled by its’ users. There is no need to trust a payment processor or bank, or even to pay fees to such entities. There are also no third-party fees for transaction processing. As the ledge is immutable and transparent it is never possible to change it – the data on the blockchain is permanent. The system is not easily susceptible to attacks as it is widely distributed. Furthermore, as users of Bitcoin have their private keys assigned to their transactions, they are virtually impossible to fake. No lengthy verification, reconciliation, nor clearing process exists with Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is based on a proof-of-work algorithm. Every transaction on the network has an associated mathetical “puzzle”. Computers known as miners compete to solve the complex cryptographic hash algorithm that comprises that puzzle. The solution is proof that the miner engaged in sufficient work. The puzzle is known as a nonce, a number used only once. There is only one major nonce at a time and it issues 12.5 Bitcoin. Once it is solved, the fact that the nonce has been solved is made public.
A block is mined on average of once every ten minutes. However, the blockchain checks every 2,016,000 minutes (approximately four years) if 201,600 blocks were mined. If it was faster, it increases difficulty by half, thereby deflating Bitcoin. If it was slower, it decreases, thereby inflating Bitcoin. It will continue to do this until zero Bitcoin are issued, projected at the year 2140. On the twelfth of May, 2020, the blockchain will halve the amount of Bitcoin issued when each nonce is guessed. When Bitcoin was first created, fifty were issued per block as a reward to miners. 6.25 BTC will be issued from that point on once each nonce is solved.
Unlike fiat, Bitcoin is a deflationary currency. As BTC becomes scarcer, demand for it will increase, also raising the price. In this, BTC is similar to gold. It is predictable in its’ output, unlike the USD, as it is based on a programmed supply. We can predict BTC’s deflation and inflation almost exactly, if not exactly. Only 21 million BTC will ever be produced, unless the entire network concedes to change the protocol – which is highly unlikely.
Some of the drawbacks to BTC include congestion. At peak congestion, it may take an entire day to process a Bitcoin transaction as only three to five transactions may be processed per second. Receiving priority on a payment may cost up to the equivalent of twenty dollars ($20). Bitcoin mining consumes enough energy in one day to power a single-family home for an entire week.
Trading or Investing?The fundamental divide in trading revolves around the question of market structure. Many feel that the market operates totally randomly and its’ behavior cannot be predicted. For the purposes of this article, we will assume that the market has a structure, but that that structure is not perfect. That market structure naturally generates chart patterns as the market records prices in time. In order to determine when the stock market will crash, causing a major decline in BTC price, we will analyze an instrument, an exchange traded fund, which represents an index, as opposed to a particular stock. The price patterns of the various stocks in an index are effectively smoothed out. In doing so, a more technical picture arises. Perhaps the most popular of these is the SPDR S&P Standard and Poor 500 Exchange Traded Fund ($SPY).
In trading, little to no concern is given about value of underlying asset. We are concerned primarily about liquidity and trading ranges, which are the amount of value fluctuating on a short-term basis, as measured by volatility-implied trading ranges. Fundamental analysis plays a role, however markets often do not react to real-world factors in a logical fashion. Therefore, fundamental analysis is more appropriate for long-term investing.
The fundamental derivatives of a chart are time (x-axis) and price (y-axis). The primary technical indicator is price, as everything else is lagging in the past. Price represents current asking price and incorrectly implementing positions based on price is one of the biggest trading errors.
Markets and currencies ordinarily have noise, their tendency to back-and-fill, which must be filtered out for true pattern recognition. That noise does have a utility, however, in allowing traders second chances to enter favorable positions at slightly less favorable entry points. When you have any market with enough liquidity for historical data to record a pattern, then a structure can be divined. The market probes prices as part of an ongoing price-discovery process. Market technicians must sometimes look outside of the technical realm and use visual inspection to ascertain the relevance of certain patterns, using a qualitative eye that recognizes the underlying quantitative nature
Markets and instruments rise slower than they correct, however they rise much more than they fall. In the same vein, instruments can only fall to having no worth, whereas they could theoretically grow infinitely and have continued to grow over time. Money in a fiat system is illusory. It is a fundamentally synthetic instrument which has no intrinsic value. Hence, the recent seemingly illogical fluctuations in the market.
According to trade theory, the unending purpose of a market or instrument is to create and break price ranges according to the laws of supply and demand. We must determine when to trade based on each market inflection point as defined in price and in time as opposed to abandoning the trend (as the contrarian trading in this sub often does). Time and Price symmetry must be used to be in accordance with the trend. When coupled with a favorable risk to reward ratio, the ability to stay in the market for most of the defined time period, and adherence to risk management rules; the trader has a solid methodology for achieving considerable gains.
We will engage in a longer term market-oriented analysis to avoid any time-focused pressure. The Bitcoin market is open twenty-four-hours a day, so trading may be done when the individual is ready, without any pressing need to be constantly alert. Let alone, we can safely project months in advance with relatively high accuracy. Bitcoin is an asset which an individual can both trade and invest, however this article will be focused on trading due to the wide volatility in BTC prices over the short-term.
Technical Indicator Analysis of BitcoinTechnical indicators are often considered self-fulfilling prophecies due to mass-market psychology gravitating towards certain common numbers yielded from them. They are also often discounted when it comes to BTC. That means a trader must be especially aware of these numbers as they can prognosticate market movements. Often, they are meaningless in the larger picture of things.
Trend Definition Analysis of BitcoinTrend definition is highly powerful, cannot be understated. Knowledge of trend logic is enough to be a profitable trader, yet defining a trend is an arduous process. Multiple trends coexist across multiple time frames and across multiple market sectors. Like time structure, it makes the underlying price of the instrument irrelevant. Trend definitions cannot determine the validity of newly formed discretes. Trend becomes apparent when trades based in counter-trend inflection points continue to fail.
Downtrends are defined as an instrument making lower lows and lower highs that are recurrent, additive, qualified swing setups. Downtrends for all instruments are similar, except forex. They are fast and complete much quicker than uptrends. An average downtrend is 18 months, something which we will return to. An uptrend inception occurs when an instrument reaches a point where it fails to make a new low, then that low will be tested. After that, the instrument will either have a deep range retracement or it may take out the low slightly, resulting in a double-bottom. A swing must eventually form.
A simple way to roughly determine trend is to attempt to draw a line from three tops going upwards (uptrend) or a line from three bottoms going downwards (downtrend). It is not possible to correctly draw a downtrend line on the BTC chart, but it is possible to correctly draw an uptrend – indicating that the overall trend is downwards. The only mitigating factor is the impending stock market crash.
Time Symmetry Analysis of BitcoinTime is the movement from the past through the present into the future. It is a measurement in quantified intervals. In many ways, our perception of it is a human construct. It is more powerful than price as time may be utilized for a trade regardless of the market inflection point’s price. Were it possible to perfectly understand time, price would be totally irrelevant due to the predictive certainty time affords. Time structure is easier to learn than price, but much more difficult to apply with any accuracy. It is the hardest aspect of trading to learn, but also the most rewarding.
Humans do not have the ability to recognize every time window, however the ability to define market inflection points in terms of time is the single most powerful trading edge. Regardless, price should not be abandoned for time alone. Time structure analysis It is inherently flawed, as such the markets have a fail-safe, which is Price Structure. Even though Time is much more powerful, Price Structure should never be completely ignored. Time is the qualifier for Price and vice versa. Time can fail by tricking traders into counter-trend trading.
Time is a predestined trade quantifier, a filter to slow trades down, as it allows a trader to specifically focus on specific time windows and rest at others. It allows for quantitative measurements to reach deterministic values and is the primary qualifier for trends. Time structure should be utilized before price structure, and it is the primary trade criterion which requires support from price. We can see price structure on a chart, as areas of mathematical support or resistance, but we cannot see time structure.
Time may be used to tell us an exact point in the future where the market will inflect, after Price Theory has been fulfilled. In the present, price objectives based on price theory added to possible future times for market inflection points give us the exact time of market inflection points and price.
Time Structure is repetitions of time or inherent cycles of time, occurring in a methodical way to provide time windows which may be utilized for inflection points. They are not easily recognized and not easily defined by a price chart as measuring and observing time is very exact. Time structure is not a science, yet it does require precise measurements. Nothing is certain or definite. The critical question must be if a particular approach to time structure is currently lucrative or not.
We will measure it in intervals of 180 bars. Our goal is to determine time windows, when the market will react and when we should pay the most attention. By using time repetitions, the fact that market inflection points occurred at some point in the past and should, therefore, reoccur at some point in the future, we should obtain confidence as to when SPY will reach a market inflection point. Time repetitions are essentially the market’s memory. However, simply measuring the time between two points then trying to extrapolate into the future does not work. Measuring time is not the same as defining time repetitions. We will evaluate past sessions for market inflection points, whether discretes, qualified swings, or intra-range. Then records the times that the market has made highs or lows in a comparable time period to the future one seeks to trade in.
What follows is a time Histogram – A grouping of times which appear close together, then segregated based on that closeness. Time is aligned into combined histogram of repetitions and cycles, however cycles are irrelevant on a daily basis. If trading on an hourly basis, do not use hours.
Evaluating the yearly lows, we see that BTC tends to have its lows primarily at the beginning of every year, with a possibility of it being at the end of the year. Following the same methodology, we get the middle of the month as the likeliest day. However, evaluating the monthly lows for the past year, the beginning and end of the month are more likely for lows.
Therefore, we have two primary dates from our histogram.
1/1/21, 1/15/21, and 1/29/21
2:00am, 8:00am, 12:00pm, or 10:00pm
In fact, the high for this year was February the 14th, only thirty days off from our histogram calculations.
The 8.6-Year Armstrong-Princeton Global Economic Confidence model states that 2.15 year intervals occur between corrections, relevant highs and lows. 2.15 years from the all-time peak discrete is February 9, 2020 – a reasonably accurate depiction of the low for this year (which was on 3/12/20). (Taking only the Armstrong model into account, the next high should be Saturday, April 23, 2022). Therefore, the Armstrong model indicates that we have actually bottomed out for the year!
Bear markets cannot exist in perpetuity whereas bull markets can. Bear markets will eventually have price objectives of zero, whereas bull markets can increase to infinity. It can occur for individual market instruments, but not markets as a whole. Since bull markets are defined by low volatility, they also last longer. Once a bull market is indicated, the trader can remain in a long position until a new high is reached, then switch to shorts. The average bear market is eighteen months long, giving us a date of August 19th, 2021 for the end of this bear market – roughly speaking. They cannot be shorter than fifteen months for a central-bank controlled market, which does not apply to Bitcoin. (Otherwise, it would continue until Sunday, September 12, 2021.) However, we should expect Bitcoin to experience its’ exponential growth after the stock market re-enters a bull market.
Terry Laundy’s T-Theory implemented by measuring the time of an indicator from peak to trough, then using that to define a future time window. It is similar to an head-and-shoulders pattern in that it is the process of forming the right side from a synthetic technical indicator. If the indicator is making continued lows, then time is recalculated for defining the right side of the T. The date of the market inflection point may be a price or indicator inflection date, so it is not always exactly useful. It is better to make us aware of possible market inflection points, clustered with other data. It gives us an RSI low of May, 9th 2020.
The Bradley Cycle is coupled with volatility allows start dates for campaigns or put options as insurance in portfolios for stocks. However, it is also useful for predicting market moves instead of terminal dates for discretes. Using dates which correspond to discretes, we can see how those dates correspond with changes in VIX.
Therefore, our timeline looks like:
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Chainlink’s 95% Weekly Price Surge May Indicate The Start Of An Altcoin Season
Despite that Bitcoin marks one of its longest non-volatile periods, Chainlink (LINK) makes another move into the green, with a 26% price increase in the past 24 hours. Chainlink also recorded a new all-time high of $8.40, before correcting to $7.85, as of press time. Тhe most recent price increase managed to boost LINK’s position in CoinMarketCap’s market capitalization chart to reach 10th place, surpassing projects like EOS, Tezos (XTZ), and Stellar (XLM).
Looking three months back, Chainlink’s price increased with 128%, with an almost tri-fold price boost since the March 12 “Black Thursday” global market wipeout. Since the start of 2020, Link’s price is up with 339%, making it one of the best-performing cryptocurrencies in 2020.
The reason behind Chainlink’s massive price boost is the series of partnerships LINK sеcured with DeFi projects. Many of the DeFi projects need some kind of real-time price quotations, and Chainlink offers to them decentralized oracle network services. In just a week, Chainlink announced a series of key partnerships with companies like Kyber Network, Nexo Finance, REN protocol, Conflux Network and Bancor.
The list of partnerships, combined with the bullish market stance on DeFi projects, may push LINK’s price above the $10 mark. But in order for LINK’s price to spike above 10$, Chainlink has to continue the successful partnership streak.
Crypto experts like Josh Rager commented on the recent market situation, showing support for Chainlink in a Bitcoin-dominated crypto sector. Rager, who is co-founder of crypto learning platform Blockroots, and an official advisor to few blockchain startups, stated that Bitcoin maximalists should consider focusing their sight towards altcoins, because Bitcoin shows little to no movement.
„Bitcoin is moving in a $1000 range, while Chainlink exploded from $3.65 to $8.50+”, Rager tweeted.
Another crypto expert, Cole Garner, joined Josh Rager’s opinion, highlighting LINK had its first candle closed above the trendline, which may be the start for a parabolic movement. Crypto trader Scott Melker, known as “The Wolf of All Streets”, posted a graph on Twitter, showing exponential growth for LINK since its inception to present day. “The most-bullish crypto-asset I have seen in a long time,” Melker noted.
However, Santiment – a crypto-focused behavior analytics company, stated that after such massive price gains, a “-9% retracement is commonly evident in the 12 days after being #1 on our Emerging Trends list.”
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s dominance retracted slightly, which further fueled the altcoin bulls, resulting in larger trading volumes for some of the projects.
Chainlink (LINK) is currently the most popular Defi project.submitted by jakkkmotivator to thecryptobasic [link] [comments]
The LINK rate has almost doubled in the past 3 weeks and hit a new all-time high of $ 8.48. As a result, the market capitalization rose briefly to over $ 2.5 billion and placed LINK in 8th place at CoinMarketCap.
Of course, many are wondering how such a sharp rise in share prices could occur.
Therefore, today we take a closer look at the possible reasons for the strong LINK Pump.
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Basically, there are currently three main factors that have led to the LINK price increase.
This includes the human psychology of pricing, high-profile partnerships, and a generally strong dynamic in the altcoin market.
In addition, the increasing trading volume may have fueled the LINK price increase.
Chainlink pricingThen on July 6th, the time had come.
The LINK price exceeded its previous record high of $ 5.31 and entered the pricing phase.
This phase leads to FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) in most markets.
The way up is clear and has no natural resistance that could be identified by technical chart analysis.
Exactly this fact leads to the fact that many speculators get in and fear to miss something, are almost ready to pay any price.
Therefore the current Chainlink price increase could be irrational and encounter a hard correction.
Within the last seven days, after the old all-time high was broken, the price exploded by over 40%, rising from $ 5.31 to $ 8.48.
The LINK price is currently around USD 7.76.
The trading volume of LINK also rose to a level that has not been observed since April 2020.
At that point, the bitcoins price recovered from its strong sell-off to around $ 3,750.
During this period, the demand for cryptocurrencies from retail investors rose by leaps and bounds. Some analysts believe that the LINK price could rise to USD 10 in the next few weeks.
However, this statement should be treated with caution.
Partnerships stimulate businessOver the course of this year, Chainlink has entered into many high-profile partnerships with companies in the crypto sector. Chainlink partnered with Nexo on July 8th. Nexo is a crypto credit company with around 800,000 users. Chainlink is to make its Oracle solutions available to the company. Chainlink co-founder Sergey Nazarov said:
We are excited to bring Chainlink's secure and reliable Oracle solutions to Nexo's popular credit platform so users can independently check the interest rate and collateral rates they should receive on the blockchain.
Over the past two months, Chainlink has partnered with blockchain projects and companies like Matic Network and Hedera Hashgraph. Chainlink was also mentioned in a Google blog post entitled Building hybrid blockchain/cloud applications with Ethereum and Google Cloud.
LINK does not miss a partnership and therefore remains on everyone's lips.
Feels like every major crypto company is already included as a partner. This attracts a lot of attention and thus increases interest in Chainlink.
Altcoin and Defi Momentum bring LINK upThe Altcoin market has shown its strong side in recent weeks. While the Bitcoin price was rather sideways, some altcoins have exploded. Chainlink is just the tip of the iceberg. Many other projects, especially from the Defi Space, were able to grow properly.
DeFi is on everyone's lips and investors are looking for the next “insider tip” to quickly make a few 100%.
The crypto market is becoming increasingly irrational and money is being thrown from one project to the next. It is strongly reminiscent of 2017 and 2018 at the ICO hype.
The strong hype and greed can be felt and makes a timely correction more and more likely.
Many are already talking about an Altcoin Season and are currently seeing LINK and many other Altcoin projects outperforming BTC. How long the situation lasts and whether further profits can be achieved with LINK is in the stars.
But you should keep in mind that Chainlink has increased by over 450% in the last 3-4 months. This could lead to strong correction.
In the past two months, we have seen a significant decline in bitcoin dominance, While the value on May 15 was still 69.60%, it fell to around 62.60% by yesterday's Sunday.submitted by jakkkmotivator to thecryptobasic [link] [comments]
So that means that many altcoins perform better than BTC.
However, in view of the more than 5000 altcoins, the question of which coins should now outperform Bitcoin naturally arises.
The spectrum ranges from the well-known alts such as Ethereum to the new top performers like Chainlink.
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In this article, let's take a look at an analysis by Santiment and see why they think Ethereum (ETH), Chainlink (LINK), and Ren (REN) could beat Bitcoin.
Santiment underlines the feeling of the Altcoin seasonFirst of all, the Santiment report presented is about a so-called short-term outlook.
This means that all statements refer to a short-term period. And for this short-term period, the analysis company now sees the altcoins ETH, Link, and REN at the forefront.
The report begins with a brief summary of the situation.
While the Bitcoin price is largely still in the price range of $ 9,000 - $ 9,500, many altcoins, in particular, have seen strong increases.
Santiment sees the greatest potential here at Chainlink (LINK).
Chainlink as a winner in front of Ethereum and RENIn the report presented, Santiment uses 3 indicators to assess the short-term situation of the altcoins. Chainlink sees this in the first place.
In addition to the positive indicators, the company also attests to the token based on the Ethereum Blockchain a bullish signal through the use in the context of China's National Blockchain Service Network (BSN).
After this news was published on July 8, the LINK course saw strong growth.
Let's take a quick look at the chart:
We can see from the 30-day chart that the price of Chainlink rose from around USD 4 to USD 6 at the beginning.
This makes LINK one of the best performers of the past 30 days.
Ethereum and REN are further candidatesIn addition, the company says that they see Ethereum and REN as additional candidates for outperformance. As already mentioned, 3 indicators were considered for this.
Now let's take a look at the ones behind it. Then, of course, we also look at the values for the individual altcoins.
NVT, DAA and Sentiment Volume Consumed as indicators
The first indicator examined is the Network Value to Transactions Ratio (NVT).
This is a metric that relates the volume of transactions divided by the number of coins/tokens in circulation to market capitalization. This is done over a period of time. In our case, that's the 3-day average.
The second indicator is the daily active addresses in relation to price divergence. Simply put, the price dynamic is set in relation to the number of active addresses.
You can find more information here. The third parameter is called Sentiment Volume Consumed. This is about the measured “sentiment” on Twitter.
Now let's look at the ratings for Bitcoin, Ethereum, LINK, and REN.
The company assigned a numerical value of 0-10 for each indicator, which varies between maximum bearish (0) and maximum bullish (10).
LINK before Ethereum, REN, and Bitcoin: the resultsLet's start with the top dog Bitcoin. BTC received only a value of 2 for the indicator NVT. The DAA value was 5 and the value for Sentiment Volume Consumed was 6.5. This gives a total value of 4.5, which Santiment sees as a neutral rating.
Ethereum itself receives 5 points for NVT, 8 points for DAA, and 7.5 for SVC. This results in a total value of 6.8. Santiment rates this as bullish. Ethereum got the second-best total after Chainlink.
LINK itself received 9 points in the NVT area. 5.5 points were awarded for DAA and 7 points for SVC. This gives a value of 7.2.
REN received 8 points in NVT, 7.5 in DAA, and only 3.5 in SVC. This gives a total value of 6.3, which is still bullish overall.
Conclusion: Short-term outperformance possible
Santiment's report shows that the 3 cryptocurrencies Ethereum, Chainlink, and Ren offer the short-term potential to outperform the top cryptocurrency Bitcoin. However, it is important to understand that these figures only give a short-term outlook and therefore do not constitute a long-term trading recommendation.
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